da heads bet： Serving as the curtain call for the 2017/18 season, the appointment for the FA Cup final is usually a good indicator of which referee is viewed as the best English football currently has to offer. And after making more Premier League appearances than any other official this season, 30, it’s perhaps no surprise that Michael Oliver has been given the nod.
da luck： It’s a big test for any referee, simply because of the potential for one controversial decision to become what the FA Cup final is remembered for. Oliver won’t want that, but he’s certainly amongst the more whistle-happy referees plying his trade in the top flight. In fact, he ranks in the top seven from the 20 referees to work in the Premier League this season for fouls per game, fouls per tackle, penalties per game and red cards per game.
As much as Jose Mourinho or Antonio Conte may therefore protest that level of strictness after the final whistle, and use it as an excuse for defeat, it’s something they must inevitably take into account heading into Chelsea and Manchester United’s meeting at Wembley this Saturday.
And the statistics suggest Oliver’s style is much better suited to Chelsea than Manchester United. Although only Watford were issue more red cards than the Blues’ four in the Premier League this season, the Red Devils finished the top flight campaign with the most yellow cards and the highest average for fouls per match of any side in the top six. In fact, Chelsea have suffered 22 less bookings than United and committed more than one foul per match less in 2017/18.
There’s an obvious disadvantage to that, even if we put Oliver’s considerably lesser ranking for yellow cards per game into the equation. For starters, Chelsea have a fantastic talent in Eden Hazard, who has won the fourth-most fouls per match of any Premier League player this season.
More crucially, United’s record for conceding from set pieces this season probably isn’t as strong as you’d expect for such a tall and powerful team; they’ve conceded only twice more in open play than from dead ball situations, and suffered almost twice as many set piece goals as Chelsea – 10 compared to six.
In what looks set to be an incredibly close game between two well-organised and somewhat cautious teams, one free kick – and therefore, one foul – could make all the difference and the statistics suggest that United are more likely to concede it than Chelsea, which serves as a big boost for the west Londoners heading into the Wembley showpiece.
In a slightly better omen for United though, they’re yet to lose a game with Oliver officiating this season. Chelsea, on the other hand, are yet to win from three attempts, including one encounter that saw the 33-year-old reduce the Blues to ten men.
[ad_pod ]